Correct score predictions, Friday 6 November
| Match | Most likely scores | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|
| Everton v Coventry CityPremier League, 20:00 | 1-1 11% 1-0 10% 2-1 10% | 1.9 v 1.0 |
| Derby County v Bolton WanderersChampionship, 20:00 | 1-1 12% 2-1 9% 1-0 8% | 1.5 v 1.4 |
Correct score predictions, Saturday 7 November
| Match | Most likely scores | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds United v Tottenham HotspurPremier League, 12:30 | 1-1 12% 1-0 10% 0-1 9% | 1.3 v 1.3 |
| Bristol City v Norwich CityChampionship, 12:30 | 1-1 12% 1-2 9% 0-1 8% | 1.4 v 1.5 |
| Portsmouth v Stoke CityChampionship, 12:30 | 1-1 13% 1-0 12% 0-1 10% | 1.3 v 1.1 |
| Wrexham AFC v Wolverhampton WanderersChampionship, 12:30 | 1-1 12% 0-1 10% 1-2 9% | 1.2 v 1.5 |
| Arsenal v Hull CityPremier League, 15:00 | 2-0 14% 3-0 13% 1-0 10% | 2.8 v 0.5 |
| Fulham v Newcastle UnitedPremier League, 15:00 | 1-1 11% 2-1 9% 1-0 8% | 1.7 v 1.3 |
| Birmingham City v Swansea CityChampionship, 15:00 | 1-1 11% 1-0 11% 2-1 10% | 1.7 v 1.0 |
| Blackburn Rovers v West Ham UnitedChampionship, 15:00 | 1-1 10% 1-2 10% 0-1 10% | 1.0 v 2.0 |
| Cardiff City v BurnleyChampionship, 15:00 | 1-1 11% 2-1 9% 1-0 8% | 1.7 v 1.4 |
| Charlton Athletic v Sheffield UnitedChampionship, 15:00 | 1-1 12% 0-1 10% 1-2 9% | 1.1 v 1.5 |
| Queens Park Rangers v Lincoln CityChampionship, 15:00 | 1-0 11% 1-1 11% 2-0 10% | 1.9 v 1.0 |
| Watford v MiddlesbroughChampionship, 15:00 | 1-2 10% 0-2 9% 1-1 9% | 1.1 v 2.3 |
| West Bromwich Albion v MillwallChampionship, 15:00 | 1-1 12% 1-0 10% 2-1 10% | 1.7 v 1.1 |
| Preston North End v SouthamptonChampionship, 15:00 | 1-2 10% 1-1 10% 0-2 9% | 1.1 v 2.0 |
| Nottingham Forest v Manchester CityPremier League, 17:30 | 1-1 10% 1-2 10% 0-1 10% | 1.1 v 1.9 |
Correct score predictions, Sunday 8 November
| Match | Most likely scores | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town v BournemouthPremier League, 14:00 | 1-1 11% 1-2 10% 0-1 9% | 1.2 v 1.8 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion v BrentfordPremier League, 14:00 | 1-1 10% 2-1 10% 1-0 8% | 1.9 v 1.3 |
| Sunderland v ChelseaPremier League, 14:00 | 1-1 12% 0-1 10% 1-2 10% | 1.2 v 1.6 |
| Crystal Palace v LiverpoolPremier League, 14:00 | 1-2 10% 0-2 10% 1-1 10% | 1.0 v 2.1 |
| Manchester United v Aston VillaPremier League, 16:30 | 1-1 11% 2-1 9% 1-0 8% | 1.7 v 1.4 |
Odds updated 01:19
Correct score predictions from a Poisson model fitted to the odds
Goals in football follow a Poisson pattern closely enough to be useful. If a team is expected to score 1.5 goals, the model gives the chance of it scoring none, one, two and so on. Doing that for both teams gives the chance of every score.
We set each team's expected goals from the odds. The over and under 2.5 goals prices fix the total, and the home and away win prices fix the split. The model then matches the market's view of goals and of who's likely to win.
Three correct score betting tips: fair prices, team news and margins
- Compare the model's chance with the bookmaker's price. For example, a score at 8% is fair at 12.5 in decimal odds, or 23/2.
- The model only sees team news once it's in the odds. A missing striker can lower a team's expected goals.
- Correct score margins are usually bigger than match result margins, so value is harder to find.
Turn a chance into a price with the odds converter, and see today's over 2.5 goals tips and BTTS tips.
Correct score predictions FAQ
How are these correct score predictions made?
We fit a Poisson goals model to each game's odds. The over and under 2.5 goals prices set how many goals to expect in total, and the home and away prices set how those goals split between the teams. The model then gives the chance of every score.
Why is the most likely score only around 10% to 15%?
Because there are so many possible scores. Even the single most likely result usually happens in fewer than one game in six, which is why correct score odds are so big.
What are expected goals here?
The average number of goals the model expects each team to score in this game, based on the odds. It isn't the same as the xG figures from shot data.
When do the correct score predictions update?
Each morning, when the goals and match odds update, and again when the match odds update about 45 minutes before kick-off. Nothing updates once a game has started.